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How will RFK Jr. fare in Utah?

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By Zach Collier

To absolutely nobody’s surprise, The Democratic National Committee has actively kept Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from securing the Democratic Nomination. Only 10 incumbent US presidents have lost re-election – the most recent being Donald Trump. On paper, throwing their weight behind Joe Biden seems like the right move in order to maintain maximum political power.

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However, polls are showing that a vast majority of Americans don’t think Biden is fit for office. A CNN poll suggested that two-thirds of registered Democrats and left-leaning independents would prefer someone other than Joe Biden. An AP poll from September showed that 77% of Americans think Biden is too old to serve another term.

Kennedy, the son of the late Senator Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of former President John F. Kennedy and Senator Ted Kennedy, announced his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination in April of 2023. As someone with a storied American political heritage – but who has not held public office himself – Kennedy is in a unique position. Like Donald Trump, he can position himself as an anti-establishment outsider. But unlike Trump, he can be seen as someone trying to heal the system by restoring it to the “good old days” instead of trying to dismantle or “drain” it.

Photo by Gage Skidmore.

It will be interesting to see how Utahns respond to this new option. Last election, Utah had the second-highest percentage of votes cast for 3rd party candidates at 4.2% – second only to Alaska at 4.4%. 37.7% of Utah voters also voted for Joe Biden in 2020 instead of Donald Trump – the highest Democratic showing for the state since 2008.

The state’s opposition to both Donald Trump and the Democratic Party was made clearest in the 2016 election, when 21.5% of voters opted for independent candidate Evan McMullin, who launched his campaign late and with far less of the political connections, family history, or financial backing RFK Jr. has.

Evan McMullin at a rally in Provo, Utah.

With many Utahns showing disdain for Donald Trump’s irreligious, bawdy, and tawdry behavior, Kennedy’s open Catholic devotion may be seen as a breath of fresh air. His opposition to mandatory vaccinations, goals to ease the housing crisis (with which Utah is struggling considerably ), and tough-but-humanitarian border policy may resonate with Utah Republicans.

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However, his his goal of raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour, his focus on the environment, and his former affiliation with the Democratic Party may be too problematic for staunch Republicans. This may be enough to win Utah Democrats over, though. Especially since they don’t have a lot to lose: Utah hasn’t swung Democrat since 1964.

Only time will tell. But with Utah’s recent erratic voting behavior, it may become a key player in future elections – especially as the Republican Party drifts from its “values” and descends further into chaos.

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